Lying With Statistics, Sub prime Edition

I am beginning to wonder whether there is a single statistic related to the state of the economy that can be trusted. Data from May and June point to bite the dust is the widely-quoted factoid that 13% of
sub prime mortgages are in default. Turns out not only is this number wrong, but the methodology used to arrive at it is ludicrous. The Mortgage Banking Association, the source of this information, classifies loans as prime or sub prime based on who originated them. Thus, all loans by New Century were sub prime and all loans by Wells Fargo (the biggest full service bank in the sub prime market) are prime .Details from the story "Sub prime delinquencies higher than reported" by Matthew Padilla in the O.C.

Register:
Forget that 13% sub prime delinquency number you heard about so much in the press and which some politicos and real estate folks turned on its head pointing out 87% of sub prime borrowers are paying their mortgage. I took another look at the transcript from the first-quarter conference call of IndyMac Bancorp, and caught this statement from CEO.

Michael Perry:
On sub prime loans, one of the things that I think people aren't aware of is that the Mortgage Bankers Association basically classifies the lender as a prime lender or a sub prime lender. So for example, they
classify IndyMac and Countrywide as prime lenders, and they classify New Century or whoever as a sub prime lender.

And all of their servicing portfolio is considered prime or sub prime for the MBA. Ok? And so when you see that delinquency number in the press of 13% sub prime delinquencies, it's hugely understated. It is absolutely hugely understated. And the prime delinquencies are overstated.The sub prime delinquencies are more like 18, 20, 22% delinquencies and that's where I think you're going to see the problems. To see if Perry had it right, I quizzed the MBA and got this in response from Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics: Mr. Perry is correct that we have to differentiate by the type of servicer rather than the type of loan. This may not be a major issue because our latest sub prime numbers are 14.4% delinquent by at least one payment, plus another 4.5% in foreclosure, for a total of 18.9% either delinquent or in foreclosure.

For just sub prime ARMs that number is 21.1%, so we agree with Mr. Perry's estimates of the current state of the market. Note that we have two levels of inaccuracy. The first is the bogus methodology of
not having a way to classify the mortgages correctly (given the fragmentation of the industry and the lack of central reporting, you'd need to sample). But the second is that the MBA has been presenting
delinquency statistics to the press and not including loans in foreclosure. I suppose that there is an argument to be made here (i.e., that's the way we've always presented it) but the evident failure to tell reporters about foreclosures smells of a deliberate effort to obfuscate (one would assume that if both facts were included in the same press release or speech, both would have been repeated elsewhere).

But the outcome is no surprise when you have an industry group reporting on the actions of its members.

The Editor
www.ClovisRealEstateAgents.com